Allgäu real estate vs s&p the last 30 years

 

I hear again and again, that the houses here gained so much value over the last 30 years. That may be true, but nobody thinks about the opportunity costs. Also, exponentials are non-intuitive.

We start with 100k 30 years ago. s&p returns 2mio, 22x return, real estate 876k, so 8.8x return (assuming you re-invest rental income. If not 375k or 3.7x).

Lets hope the s&p keeps going.

Year,SP500_EUR_Wealth,House_Wealth_TCO,House_Price_Only
1995,100000.0,90090.09009009009,90090.09009009009
1996,120259.99999999999,90348.64864864864,89189.18918918919
1997,157552.626,90135.48648648648,87851.35135135135
1998,199571.91135419998,90821.16628378378,87412.09459459459
1999,238548.30564167525,91957.52351351352,87412.09459459459
2000,214359.50744960937,93559.35014695946,87849.15506756755
2001,186407.0276781803,94227.88221702365,87409.90929222971
2002,142843.70530978957,94410.56892744442,86535.81019930741
2003,180525.87477051208,93624.8237708347,84805.09399532127
2004,196755.15091238113,93306.38064288226,83533.01758539144
2005,202657.80543975256,93448.38677277742,82697.68740953752
2006,230259.79854064688,94523.4567091014,82697.68740953752
2007,238387.96942913168,96554.51191187964,83524.6642836329
2008,146632.4399958589,99593.13919851821,85195.15756930556
2009,181017.7471748878,101204.17962815377,85621.13335715208
2010,204151.81526383845,105386.77199265065,88189.76735786664
2011,204151.81526383845,111859.90091671808,92599.25572575998
2012,231528.5736907192,120412.83117182789,98618.20734793438
2013,300061.0315031721,130821.98295740236,106014.57289902946
2014,334237.98299138347,142776.18619749692,114495.73873095182
2015,331798.04571554635,156527.12441908423,124227.87652308273
2016,363451.57927680947,172374.8746271339,135408.38541016018
2017,434033.87597236584,190678.0260830252,148272.1820241254
2018,406950.1621116902,211866.12089427272,163099.40022653795
2019,524477.3689295463,233245.19027596732,177778.34624692638
2020,609757.3891174906,255578.59502323743,192889.50567791512
2021,773721.1510511838,286475.63604272594,214107.3513024858
2022,623309.7592868337,300829.3928740446,222671.64535458523
2023,774337.7139620335,279426.1943225619,204857.91372621842
2024,954835.8350865834,276447.5602569827,200760.75545169404
2025,1111333.4284572743,295800.897082526,212806.4007787957